Paderborn vs Stuttgart Prediction, October 28, 2026: Can the Slumping Swabians Avoid a Pokal Shock? 🏆

Paderborn vs Stuttgart Prediction: Match Preview

Paderborn welcome Stuttgart to the Home Deluxe Arena on Wednesday evening for an all-Bundesliga DFB-Pokal second-round tie that has become a referendum on Sebastian Hoeneß’s troubled reign. The hosts arrive on a high after their first Bundesliga win of the season, a 1-0 victory over Hamburger SV secured by Rayan Philippe’s late strike. Stuttgart, by contrast, are reeling from a shock 3-2 home defeat to bottom-of-the-table Borussia Mönchengladbach, a result that left them with just two wins from seven domestic fixtures since opening their campaign with a 4-0 cup thrashing of Hansa Rostock. Hoeneß has demanded a reaction: “We want to show a reaction after our last Bundesliga game and turn over a new leaf”.

Match Information 📋

Match: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Competition: Germany: DFB-Pokal – 1/16-finals
Date: Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Kick-off: 18:00 CET (17:00 BST)
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Our Prediction: Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart

Head-to-Head Record 📋

Stuttgart’s dominance in this fixture is absolute. The Swabians have won all three previous DFB-Pokal meetings between the clubs—1-2 in 2015, 1-2 in 2023, and most recently a 2-0 Bundesliga victory at the Home Deluxe Arena earlier this month. Across all competitions, Stuttgart have won all four away games against Paderborn, including two cup ties. The hosts have never beaten Stuttgart in a competitive match.

Paderborn Form 🔵

Last 5: W-D-L-W-L

Paderborn’s return to the Bundesliga has been commendable. The promoted side sit 15th with four points from five matches, and their 1-0 win over Hamburg was their first top-flight victory of the campaign. Goalkeeper Nahuel Noll has been the standout performer, earning the best rating of any Bundesliga keeper from Kicker and producing five sensational saves in the 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen. Rayan Philippe’s late winner against HSV demonstrated the hosts’ capacity to compete, while the 4-2 first-round cup win over Phönix Lübeck showcased their attacking intent.

Team News: Paderborn are without Marcel Hoffmeier (muscle) and Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant (knee), while Sebastian Klaas (groin) and Timur Gayret (knee) also miss out. Oliver Batista Meier is sidelined with an ankle issue. Kettemann is expected to retain the back three of Ter Horst, Scheller, and Hansen, with Marino and Tigges leading the line.

Stuttgart Form ⚪

Last 5: L-L-W-D-W

Stuttgart’s domestic form is alarming. The 3-2 defeat to Gladbach was their fifth loss in seven league matches, and Hoeneß acknowledged his side must “raise our game and demand more from ourselves if we want to win games”. Ermedin Demirović scored a brace against Gladbach but has been criticised for his body language as captain, with a Kicker average of 4.33. The cup represents a welcome distraction, and Stuttgart’s away record in the competition is formidable: 13 wins from their last 14 DFB-Pokal away games, including seven consecutive victories.

Team News: Josha Vagnoman and Nikolas Nartey remain sidelined with muscular issues, while Tiago Tomás, Justin Diehl, and Dan-Axel Zagadou are working their way back from injuries. Fabian Bredlow starts in goal, with Dennis Seimen—who made his Bundesliga debut against Paderborn earlier this month—on the bench. Demirović and Chabot are expected to return to the starting XI after being rested against Gladbach.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Paderborn Predicted Lineup (3-3-2-2)

Noll; Ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen; Curda, Castañeda, Obermair; Ulrich, Vidovic; Marino, Tigges

Kettemann is expected to retain the core that beat Hamburg. Noll’s form in goal is the foundation, while Vidovic and Ulrich provide creativity behind the strikers.

Stuttgart Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Bredlow; Assignon, Jeltsch, Hendriks, Mittelstädt; Karazor, Stiller; Sauer, Demirovic, Fuhrich; Pejcinovic

Hoeneß is expected to restore Demirović and Chabot after their Gladbach rest. Pejcinovic leads the line in the absence of Tomás and Diehl, with Sauer and Fuhrich providing width.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical picture from the league meeting earlier this month is revealing. Stuttgart generated 2.64 xG to Paderborn’s 1.39, with 16 shots to 20 and eight on target to five. That dominance was reflected in the 2-0 scoreline, with Chabot and Führich finding the net.

The key battle will be Paderborn’s defensive resilience against Stuttgart’s attacking quality. The hosts have conceded seven goals in five league matches, and Stuttgart’s 2.64 xG performance at this venue demonstrates their capacity to create chances. However, Stuttgart’s recent defensive frailties—conceding three to Gladbach—suggest Paderborn will get opportunities. Both Teams to Score carries value, with Paderborn having scored in three of their last four home matches and Stuttgart conceding in five of their last seven.

Betting Analysis 💰

Stuttgart are clear favourites at 1.75, with Paderborn at 4.20 and the draw at 4.00. The market reflects Stuttgart’s historical dominance and superior individual quality, but their domestic form makes the price risky. Both Teams to Score at 1.60 is the standout angle given both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities. Paderborn Double Chance (Win or Draw) offers value for those expecting the hosts to capitalise on Stuttgart’s slump.

Final Prediction 🏁

Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart

This is a fixture where Stuttgart’s historical dominance and superior individual quality should ultimately prevail, but their domestic slump and Paderborn’s momentum ensure it will be far from straightforward. The Swabians have won all four away meetings with Paderborn, including two cup ties, and their 2-0 victory at this venue earlier this month provides a template.

Yet Hoeneß’s side are vulnerable. The Gladbach defeat exposed defensive frailties and raised questions about Demirović’s captaincy. Paderborn, buoyed by their first Bundesliga win, will sense an opportunity. Noll’s form in goal and the home crowd’s energy could unsettle a Stuttgart side low on confidence. But the gulf in class, combined with Stuttgart’s need for a reaction, should carry the visitors through.

Prediction: Paderborn 1-2 Stuttgart. Demirović opens the scoring for the visitors, Tigges equalises for the hosts, and Führich seals the points in the second half as Stuttgart advance to the last 16 and ease the pressure on Hoeneß.