Arsenal vs Everton Prediction, October 24, 2026: Can the Saka-Less Gunners Avoid a Post-Munich Hangover? 🏆

Arsenal vs Everton Prediction: Match Preview

Arsenal welcome Everton to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday afternoon for a Premier League fixture that has become an unexpected test of squad depth for Mikel Arteta. The Gunners are unbeaten at home this season and sit second in the table, but they arrive at this fixture reeling from the loss of Bukayo Saka to a quad injury sustained in the midweek draw at Bayern Munich. Everton, by contrast, have no such concerns: David Moyes travels to north London with a fully fit squad and the memory of their first defeat of the season, a 2-0 home loss to Chelsea, fresh in the mind.

Match Information 📋

Match: Arsenal vs Everton
Competition: England: Premier League – Round 8
Date: Saturday, 24 October 2026
Kick-off: 15:00 BST
Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
Our Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton

Head-to-Head Record 📋

Arsenal’s historical dominance in this fixture is emphatic: the Gunners have won 104 of the 210 competitive meetings between the clubs, with Everton claiming 61 victories and 45 draws. At the Emirates, Arsenal have won the last two meetings 2-0, including a comfortable March 2026 triumph in which they generated 2.59 xG to Everton’s 1.07. The Gunners have kept more away clean sheets than any other Premier League side since the start of last season, and their defensive record at home against the Toffees is equally formidable.

Arsenal Form 🔵

Last 5: W-W-D-W-W

Arsenal’s start to the season has been characteristically strong, with five wins and a draw from their opening seven matches. The 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich was a creditable result, but the cost was significant: Saka limped off inside ten minutes with a quad injury, and Arteta admitted the prognosis “doesn’t look good at all”. William Saliba remains sidelined with a back complaint, while Christos Tzolis is still recovering from a thigh problem. The good news is that Piero Hincapié has returned to full training after his ankle issue, though he is likely to be managed carefully.

Team News: With Saka absent, Noni Madueke is expected to start on the right, with Eberechi Eze recalled on the left after his goalscoring cameo in Munich. Myles Lewis-Skelly could replace Bruno Guimarães in midfield, while Ben White may come in for Jurriën Timber at right-back after the Dutchman played the full 90 minutes at the Allianz Arena.

Everton Form ⚪

Last 5: D-D-W-D-L

Everton’s season has been defined by resilience rather than flair. The Toffees are unbeaten in four of their opening seven matches, but their 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea before the international break was a sobering reality check. David Moyes has a fully fit squad at his disposal, a rarity at this stage of the campaign, with no confirmed absences or suspensions. Thierno Barry leads the line with three Premier League goals, while Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall provide the creative spark. Everton’s expected goals figure of 1.66 per match is actually superior to Arsenal’s 1.49, suggesting the Toffees create chances at a comparable rate.

Team News: The only genuine selection dilemma for Moyes is at right-back, where Ainsley Maitland-Niles’ defensive frailties could prompt a switch to Jake O’Brien against Arsenal’s active left side. Christian Nørgaard, the former Arsenal midfielder, is expected to fill a rotation role after recovering from a groin problem.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Arsenal Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Lewis-Skelly, Rice; Madueke, Ødegaard, Eze; Havertz

With Saka out, Madueke shifts to the right and Eze earns a recall on the left. Lewis-Skelly’s energy could be preferred to Guimarães in midfield after the Brazilian’s difficult night in Munich.

Everton Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Rohl, Garner, Armstrong, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry

Moyes is expected to retain the settled 4-5-1 that has served him, with O’Brien preferred at right-back for his defensive solidity. Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall roam behind Barry.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical picture is more nuanced than the league table suggests. Arsenal average 1.3 xG per game while conceding just 0.7, while Everton generate 1.3 xG and concede 1.0. The Gunners’ defensive superiority is the foundation of their title challenge, and Everton’s attacking output—while respectable—has been undermined by wastefulness in front of goal.

The key battle will be Arsenal’s makeshift right side against Everton’s left-sided threat. With Saka absent, Madueke must provide the width and penetration that the England international usually delivers. Everton will look to Grealish and Dewsbury-Hall to exploit the spaces behind Arsenal’s advanced full-backs, particularly if White pushes forward from right-back. Both Teams to Score carries a 42% probability, reflecting Everton’s attacking intent but Arsenal’s defensive solidity.

Betting Analysis 💰

Arsenal are overwhelming favourites at 1.38, with Everton at 8.50 and the draw at 4.74. The market reflects the gulf in quality and home advantage. Under 2.5 goals is the standout angle: Arsenal have kept clean sheets in three of their last five home matches, and Everton’s matches have averaged just 2.5 goals. Arsenal to win to nil offers value given Everton’s struggles to convert chances.

Final Prediction 🏁

Arsenal 2-0 Everton

This is a fixture where Arsenal’s squad depth and home fortress should prove decisive, even without Saka. The Gunners have not lost at the Emirates this season, and their defensive record is the best in the division. Everton will be organised and resilient—Moyes has built a side that is difficult to break down—but the gulf in individual quality, particularly in the final third, should tell.

Everton will not go quietly. Their xG figures suggest they create chances, and Grealish’s ability to unlock defences is genuine. But Arsenal’s defensive structure, marshalled by Gabriel and Konsa, should withstand the pressure, while Madueke and Eze offer enough attacking thrust to compensate for Saka’s absence.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton. Havertz opens the scoring before half-time, Eze doubles the lead after the break, and Arsenal’s defence holds firm to secure a comfortable victory and maintain their unbeaten home record.