Turkey vs Italy Prediction: Can Montella’s Depleted Side Secure a Famous Win Over His Homeland? 🏆

Turkey vs Italy Prediction: Match Preview

Turkey and Italy meet at the Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Stadium in Bursa on Monday in a Nations League A1 clash that pits two wounded nations against each other. Both sides opened their campaigns with defeats—Turkey fell 1-0 to France, while Italy were beaten 2-0 by Belgium in Rome. For Vincenzo Montella, this fixture carries immense personal significance as he faces the country of his birth, while Roberto Mancini seeks to avoid a third consecutive competitive defeat in his second spell as Italy boss.

Match Information 📋

Match: Turkey vs Italy
Competition: UEFA Nations League A1
Date: Monday, 28 September 2026
Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Venue: Yüzüncü Yıl Atatürk Stadium, Bursa
Our Prediction: Turkey 1-1 Italy

Our Prediction 🎯

Turkey 1-1 Italy

Main Betting Angle: Draw & under 2.5 goals

Key Reasoning: Both sides are depleted by injuries, and history suggests a tight affair with few goals.

Head-to-Head Record 📋

The historical record between these two nations makes for uncomfortable reading for the hosts. Across 16 recorded meetings, Turkey have never beaten Italy, with the Azzurri winning 11 and five ending in draws. Italy have outscored Turkey 29 to 10 across those fixtures.

The most recent encounter was a June 2024 friendly, which ended in a 0-0 draw. Italy’s last competitive victory over Turkey was a 3-0 triumph at EURO 2020, courtesy of goals from Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne.

Turkey Form 🔵

Last 5 matches: L-W-L-L-L

Turkey’s 1-0 defeat to France on Friday extended a concerning run of form. The Crescent-Stars have now lost three of their last four matches, with their only victory being a consolation win over the United States at the World Cup. Montella’s side showed resilience against France, holding the World Cup semi-finalists for nearly an hour before Kylian Mbappe’s opener, but the sending-off of goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır in the 87th minute compounded their misery.

The hosts are severely depleted for this fixture. Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız—both based in Italy—are sidelined with injuries, while Orkun Kökçü remains out with a toe problem. Çakır is suspended following his red card against France, handing the goalkeeper’s gloves to Altay Bayındır.

Italy Form ⚪

Last 5 matches: L-W-W-W-D

Italy’s 2-0 defeat to Belgium in Rome was a chastening start to Mancini’s second tenure. The Azzurri were outplayed for large periods, conceding goals in the middle of each half, and suffered their first competitive loss to Belgium since 1972. The performance raised serious questions about Italy’s ability to compete at the elite level after their third consecutive World Cup qualification failure.

Mancini is expected to make significant changes. Alessandro Bastoni returns from suspension, while Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante, and Manuel Locatelli are all injured. Nicolò Zaniolo has left the camp and will not feature.

Team News & Expected Lineups 📰

Turkey Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Bayindir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Ozcan, Yuksek; Guler, Uzun, Akturkoglu; Yilmaz

Montella is expected to revert to a four-man defence after deploying a five-man backline against France. Arda Güler will shift into his preferred number 10 role to anchor the attack. Merih Demiral captains the side, with Baris Alper Yilmaz leading the line.

Italy Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Donnarumma; Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali, Fagioli; Raspadori, P. Esposito, Kean

Mancini is preparing up to six changes from the Belgium defeat. Michael Kayode is set to replace Giovanni Di Lorenzo at right-back, while Bastoni returns to partner Gianluca Mancini in central defence. Davide Frattesi is pushing for a start in midfield, with Francesco Pio Esposito favoured to lead the attack ahead of Gianluca Scamacca.

Key Stats 📊

• Turkey winless vs Italy: 0 wins in 16 attempts

• Italy clean sheets: 5 in last 8 matches

• Under 2.5 goals: 4 of Italy’s last 5 matches

  

• Both teams to score: In 3 of the last 5 meetings

• Turkey home record: 21 wins in 37 matches under Montella

Tactical Analysis 📈

The match will be defined by Turkey’s need to break down a disciplined Italian defence without their creative leaders.

Without Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız, Turkey’s attacking burden falls squarely on Arda Güler. The Real Madrid playmaker will operate in the number 10 role, tasked with unlocking an Italian defence that, despite its struggles against Belgium, remains well-organised. Baris Alper Yılmaz provides a physical presence up front, while Kerem Aktürkoğlu offers pace on the wing.

Italy will look to control possession and exploit Turkey’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly down the flanks. The return of Bastoni adds steel to the backline, while Tonali and Frattesi provide energy in midfield. Esposito’s movement and Raspadori’s creativity will be key to breaking down a Turkish side that has conceded in each of its last four matches.

The key battle will be Güler’s creativity against Italy’s midfield axis of Tonali and Frattesi. If Turkey can get their playmaker on the ball in dangerous areas, they have a genuine chance. However, Italy’s superior individual quality and historical dominance in this fixture suggest they will find a way through.

Betting Analysis 💰

Result: Draw

Goals: Under 2.5

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Statistical models give Italy a narrow advantage, with the Azzurri priced at 2.55-2.60 for the win, while Turkey are at 2.70 and the draw at 3.25. The Both Teams to Score market is favoured at 1.57, reflecting both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities.

Under 2.5 goals is also a strong selection, with four of Italy’s last five matches producing fewer than three goals.

Final Prediction 🏁

Turkey 1-1 Italy

Turkey’s depleted squad and historical inability to beat Italy make them marginal underdogs, but Montella’s side showed enough against France to suggest they can compete. The return of Bastoni strengthens Italy’s defence, but Mancini’s men remain a work in progress after their Belgium humiliation.

Expect a tense, tactical affair with few clear-cut chances. Both sides will prioritise avoiding defeat, and a share of the spoils appears the most probable outcome.

Prediction: Turkey 1-1 Italy. The points are shared in Bursa, leaving both nations still searching for their first victory of the campaign.