Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Can the World Champions Extend Their Unbeaten Run to 40 Matches? 🏆

Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Match Preview

Spain welcome Croatia to the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán in Seville on Tuesday night knowing that victory would extend their remarkable unbeaten run to 40 matches and put them firmly in control of Group A3. The world champions opened their Nations League campaign with a thrilling 3-2 victory over England at Wembley, coming from behind to win through Lamine Yamal, Álex Baena, and Mikel Oyarzabal. Croatia, meanwhile, secured a 2-1 victory in Prague against the Czech Republic, with Luka Modrić rolling back the years to score and Marco Pašalić heading the winner. This fixture represents the first major test for Slaven Bilić’s new-look Croatia against the best team in the world.

Match Information 📋

Match: Spain vs Croatia
Competition: UEFA Nations League A3
Date: Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Kick-off: 20:45 BST
Venue: Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville
Our Prediction: Spain 2-1 Croatia

Our Prediction 🎯

Spain 2-1 Croatia

Main Betting Angle: Spain to win & both teams to score

Key Reasoning: Spain’s remarkable momentum, home advantage, and superior attacking depth should prove decisive, though Croatia’s experience and Modrić’s enduring quality make them dangerous opponents.

Head-to-Head Record 📋

The historical record between these two nations has become one of the most frequent fixtures in European football over the past decade. Since June 2016, they have met six times, with Spain winning three, Croatia winning two, and one draw—the 0-0 in the 2023 Nations League final, which Spain won on penalties.

Most significantly, Spain are on a three-match winning streak against Croatia, including a 5-3 extra-time victory in the 2024 Nations League quarter-finals and a 2-1 win in the 2025 Nations League group stage. Croatia’s last victory over Spain came in the 2018 Nations League group stage.

Spain Form 🔵

Last 5 matches: W-W-D-W-W

Spain’s 3-2 victory at Wembley was a statement performance from the world champions. Lamine Yamal opened the scoring early, and after England fought back to lead 2-1, Álex Baena equalised before Mikel Oyarzabal scored the winner in the 74th minute. The match featured five goals, two disallowed strikes, and a missed Harry Kane penalty, underlining Spain’s ability to win in chaotic circumstances.

The hosts have been unbeaten in 39 matches, a run that stretches back to the 2022 Nations League. Luis de la Fuente has confirmed he will rotate his squad given the congested schedule, with Pedri, Mikel Merino, and Álex Grimaldo all pushing for starts. Robin Le Normand has been called up as a replacement for the injured Eric García, while David Raya could start in goal ahead of Unai Simón.

Croatia Form ⚪

Last 5 matches: W-W-L-D-W

Croatia’s 2-1 victory in Prague was the perfect start to Slaven Bilić’s second spell in charge. Luka Modrić, at 41 years and 203 days, became the oldest goalscorer in Croatia’s history with a superb finish from the edge of the box, before Marco Pašalić headed the winner from an Ivan Perišić cross.

The captain’s decision to continue his international career has been a major boost for Croatia. Modrić has now scored 30 goals in 203 appearances for his country and remains the creative heartbeat of the side. He spoke confidently ahead of the Spain fixture: “We have to play our game, as always. We don’t have to adapt to anyone, regardless of whether it’s Spain”.

Bilić has retained a core of experienced players including Mateo Kovačić, Ivan Perišić, and Andrej Kramarić, while integrating younger talents like Martin Baturina and Luka Vušković.

Team News & Expected Lineups 📰

Spain Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Raya; Porro, Le Normand, Cubarsí, Grimaldo; Zubimendi, Pedri, Merino; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena

De la Fuente is expected to make several changes to manage the workload of his players during a demanding international break. Pedri, who impressed in his 20-minute cameo at Wembley, could replace Fabián Ruiz. Martín Zubimendi is likely to come in for Rodri, while Álex Baena deserves a start after his goal and assist against England.

Croatia Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Livaković; Stanišić, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Juranović; Modrić, Kovačić, Pašalić; Perišić, Kramarić, Baturina

Bilić is expected to retain the core of the side that won in Prague. Luka Vušković could be handed a start alongside Joško Gvardiol in central defence, while Martin Baturina provides creativity in the attacking third.

Key Stats 📊

• Spain unbeaten run: 39 matches

• Spain H2H streak: 3 consecutive wins over Croatia

• Modrić record: Oldest goalscorer in Croatia history (41 years, 203 days)

  

• Both teams to score: 5 of the last 6 meetings

• Spain home form: Unbeaten in last 12 home matches

Tactical Analysis 📈

The match will be defined by Spain’s possession dominance against Croatia’s experience and counter-attacking threat.

Spain’s 4-3-3 formation relies on Pedri’s creativity and Yamal’s dribbling to unlock defences. The world champions will look to dominate the ball and create chances through quick combinations in wide areas. Oyarzabal’s movement and Baena’s directness provide alternative attacking outlets.

Croatia will look to frustrate Spain and strike on the counter, with Modrić dictating tempo and Perišić providing width. The veteran midfielder’s ability to find pockets of space between the lines will be crucial. Kramarić’s finishing and Baturina’s creativity offer genuine goal threat.

The key battle will be Spain’s midfield against Modrić and Kovačić. If Croatia’s veterans can control the tempo, they have a chance. However, Spain’s superior individual quality and home advantage should prove decisive.

Betting Analysis 💰

Result: Spain Win

Goals: Over 2.5

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Spain are heavy favourites at 1.40, with Croatia priced at 7.00 and the draw at 4.75. The Both Teams to Score market is strongly favoured given both sides’ attacking quality and Croatia’s record of scoring in five of the last six meetings. Over 2.5 goals is also a strong selection.

Final Prediction 🏁

Spain 2-1 Croatia

Spain’s remarkable 39-match unbeaten run, home advantage in Seville, and superior attacking depth make them clear favourites, despite Croatia’s impressive victory in Prague. The world champions have not lost since 2022 and possess the individual quality to break down any defence.

However, Croatia’s experience, tactical discipline, and Modrić’s enduring brilliance make them dangerous opponents. The 41-year-old remains capable of producing the moment that changes a match, as he demonstrated in Prague. Davor Šuker has warned Spain against complacency, noting that Croatia have historically thrived when underestimated.

Expect an entertaining, competitive contest with goals at both ends. Spain’s quality should ultimately prevail, but Croatia will make them work for it.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Croatia. Goals from Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal should secure a hard-fought victory for Spain, with Luka Modrić pulling one back for the visitors. Spain’s unbeaten run extends to 40 matches, while Croatia’s search for a first win over the world champions since 2018 continues.